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March 11, 2025

On Feb. 12, 2025, two economics experts shared information and insights about the impact of immigration on Canada’s economy at Economic Outlook 2025, an event hosted by the ³Ô¹ÏÍø Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis (LCERPA) and the Lazaridis School of Business and Economics at ³Ô¹ÏÍø.

The theme of Economic Outlook 2025 was “Immigration challenges and opportunities for Canada in the 21st century” and featured guest panellists, Pedro Antunes, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada and Jennifer Hunt, an economics professor at Rutgers University. The event was moderated by LCERPA Director and Lazaridis Economics professor, Jeff Chan.

“The importance of events like this is that they give us a chance to discuss economic topics that impact us day to day in a rigorous way,” said Lazaridis Dean Kyle Murray in his opening remarks to a crowd of approximately 275 attendees in person and virtually. “At all our kitchen tables, we’re talking about economics and the impact of immigration, tariffs, and trade on our lives. This is an important time to study economics and to discuss these pressing issues.”



The day started with prepared remarks from the panellists, followed by an in-depth discussion of pressing economic issues related to immigration, as well as research poster presentations by economics students. Below is a summary of the event.

Unprecedented shifts in Canada’s population and immigration levels

Antunes began with a presentation on immigration policy changes over the last five years as a response to Canada’s changing population levels. He noted that Canada’s aging population will result in a large demographic leaving the workforce.

Post-COVID-19, in 2022, there were more than one million job vacancies in Canada, prompting an increase in immigration of non-permanent residents, which cut the job vacancy number in half.

Antunes: “Total immigration averaged one million people per year in 2022, 2023, and 2024. But in 2024, economic growth started to slow down, and the unemployment rate began to rise. The government changed its policy on immigration to reduce the... stock of non-permanent residents from seven per cent to five per cent, but these changes won’t take effect until this year.”

Based on Conference Board figures, Antunes called for more stability in the level of new immigrants.

Antunes: “Prior to the pandemic, the two most boring indicators you would look at were population growth, one per cent per year. Inflation was the other, with a pace of two per cent per year, for 30 years. Suddenly, everything changed post-pandemic... the economy was hit with high inflation and population growth increasing from one per cent per year to three per cent growth per year for three years running...

We should look for a steadier decline in our non-permanent resident population, to get us back to something more stable and normal in terms of population growth, but not go from three per cent growth to a decline so abruptly from 2024 to 2025.”

Immigration and gross domestic product (GDP)

In Hunt’s opening remarks, she noted that Canada has higher-than-average immigration compared to other Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Hunt pointed out while GDP per Canadian-born rises on average, some workers with lower wages are worse off.

Hunt: “Those who tend to work with immigrants tend to see higher wages, but wages could fall in occupations with a high number of immigrants. Canadian-born people who are close substitutes for immigrants have, in some countries, to have wage declines... A particular concern is that these wage declines are occurring among the least-skilled Canadian-born workers.

To give the technocratic answer to what the ideal immigration level is... it’s actually subjective... It depends on your aims and which groups you prioritize. In other words, it depends on what your social welfare function is, and different people care to varying degrees about different groups.”

Immigration and housing affordability

With housing costs at an all-time high in Canada, panellists were asked whether they saw immigration as the issue.

Antunes: “The real driver of the housing price surge was not immigration, but the massive influx of capital during the pandemic. People saved money, borrowed at low rates, and poured it into real estate. Immigration played a role, but it wasn’t the root cause... In 2020 and 2021, we actually had a decline in population growth, and that’s when housing prices really took off—by about 38 per cent nominally in those two years.”

Hunt: “If the supply is fixed and demand keeps growing, the price will go up. Obviously, immigration increases the population... but the real question is: what is the core issue? Is it the supply of housing, or is it immigration? The population will be growing at least slightly even without immigration, so you still need to determine how to increase housing supply.”

International students

With policy changes surrounding international students at post-secondary institutions, Antunes and Hunt shared their insights.

Hunt: “You could view students as an export industry. That Canada is exporting educational services. You have people from abroad who are willing to spend huge amounts of money while they are students. They are generally working little or not at all. So, there’s actually no concern about them competing with Canadians in the labour market.”

Antunes: “Essentially, our fiscal challenge and much of the reason we encourage immigration is because we have an aging demography. The cost of that on our healthcare system will be challenging for public finances. So, you couldn’t imagine a better win-win scenario than having international students come, spend their money here, and contribute to Canada’s economy.”

U.S.-Canada trade risks and tariffs

While illegal immigration was initially cited as a justification for new U.S. tariffs, experts weighed in on the ongoing threats of tariffs and their potential impact.

Antunes: “One thing I’d say is that tightening border security to protect the U.S. from fentanyl and illegal immigration is their responsibility. Having said that, I think this issue plays more into politics and tariffs than actual immigration policy.”

Hunt: “I think tariffs are the much more concerning thing for the U.S. than immigration. Of course, it’s a waste of money to allocate more security at the border than is actually needed... [unnecessary will have a somewhat negative effect on the economy, but I think that impact is relatively small, especially compared to other problems.”

Antunes: “We should focus on diversifying our markets. The real issue isn’t just immigration or border security—it’s economic dependency. If U.S. tariffs increase, it will be painful, but Canada must open up internal trade and seek new partners.”

Hunt: “A 25 per cent tariff on Canadian imports would be devastating. It would raise prices, disrupt jobs, and weaken supply chains. The impact on the U.S. would be bad, but for Canada, it would be much worse.”

Watch a recording of the discussion

There were many more insights and audience questions shared over the afternoon. Those interested can watch the full panel discussion on YouTube.

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